Plan for Uncertainty Master Risks Deliver Success
- Anticipate delays and cost overruns.
- Analyze scenarios and manage risks.
- Maintain control of the project at all times.
Expert consulting you can trust—reliable and results driven.
Our Mision
Our History
Our mission is to provide expert and reliable, consulting services that set the foundation for project and business success. We specialize in business modeling, risk and decision analysis, equipping organizations with the tools, knowledge and insights needed to make informed decisions, mitigate risks, and deliver their projects on cost, on target , on time.
Our History
Our History
Since 2003, our team has been dedicated to providing expert training and consulting services, We have helped organizations across industries navigate complex challenges, optimize decision-making processes, and achieve sustainable growth. Our commitment , honesty, and industry knowledge has earned us the trust of our clients, enabling us to deliver customized solutions that create lasting value.
We use cutting edge technology
We use cutting edge technology
We strive to empower our customers to cultivate a robust culture of risk management by leveraging proven techniques, methodologies, and advanced technologies. Our approach includes the application of AI to enhance risk and economic analysis, enabling organizations to make informed decisions, mitigate uncertainties, and drive strategic growth.
Why is it essential to analyze risks and uncertainty.
Projects cost more and take longer than initially planned.
IT'S A FACT.
Even with the most advanced project management tools, no plan can fully account for the uncertainties and risks that impact every phase or task. This often results in time and cost overruns.
Probabilistic risk analysis is key to identifying these factors and predicting the total duration and cost of your project more accurately, delivering invaluable insights for stakeholders.
Are your financial estimates realistic?
DESIGN ROBUST AND REALISTIC FINANCIAL FORECASTS AND PLANS FROM THE START.
By incorporating variability and uncertainty through probability distributions, probabilistic models deliver predictions that more accurately capture the range of possible outcomes in real-world scenarios.
Learn to confidently estimate sales figures, volumes, task durations, and costs.
WHAT CAN BE OBSERVED CAN BE MEASURED.
Probabilistic models enable the integration of uncertainty and the interactions between project variables.
Define distributions for variables such as production volumes, revenue and costs, price volatility, market size, competition impact, and changes in the economic environment.
Learn estimation techniques and make decisions with confidence.
Easily create decision models and risk analyses tailored to your organization.
Probabilistic models and risk simulation allow for comprehensive risk analyses, evaluating the probability of different scenarios and their potential impacts on the project.
Easily create decision models and risk analyses tailored to your organization.
Easily create decision models and risk analyses tailored to your organization.
Easily create decision models and risk analyses tailored to your organization.
Probabilistic models can be easily adapted and updated as new information or data becomes available, allowing for continuous improvement in the accuracy of predictions.
We assist companies deploying AI for Smarter Risk modelling.
Working with LLM's
In today’s fast-paced and complex business environment, knowing how to leverage Large Language Models (LLMs) as ‘trusted partners’ in risk management and decision-making provides a significant competitive advantage.
These AI systems enhance analytical capabilities, automate complex modeling processes, and generate insights that empower organizations to make data-driven, strategic decisions with greater confidence.
Download the Quick AI Report
Get ideas to build and improve your probabilistic models.
- Large Language Models (LLM’s) and ChatGPT.
- Building probabilistic models in Excel for project planning, economic evaluation, and financial feasibility of projects.
- How to choose an appropriate distribution for uncertain variables.
- Using Chat GPT as a sounding board to improve your risk definitions.
- How Chat GPT Can help with the stages of project risk management:
- 1.Project Risk Planning
- 2.Risk Identification
- 3.Qualitative Risk Analysis
- 4.Quantitative Risk Analysis
- 5.Risk Response Planning
We have provided training and consulting in:
MYTH: Designing risk analysis models is too difficult.
Effective risk management defines the success of your projects.
Learn with EDYTRAINING to create quantitative models and Monte Carlo simulation prototypes in minutes using MsExcel and AI.
Learn to design:
- Decision Trees.
- Models with probabilistic scenarios.
- How to define uncertainty using probability distributions.
- Bowtie risk charts.
- Advanced data analysis and statistical inference models with Neural Network algorithms.
MYTH : Our risks are too difficult to quantify
Consulting Case Study: Effective Application of Quantitative Risk Analysis.
An experienced financial project manager from an international chemical firm faced the challenge of evaluating a large-scale financial plan and project investments. Aware of the risks posed by uncertainties in the different business areas, they turned to a quantitative risk analysis model.
By analyzing data and running the model, they identified material cost fluctuations, potential risks and regulatory changes as key high-impact risks.
Using these insights, they expanded the initial model to explore scenarios, developed contingency plans, and adjusted the budget to include safety margins based on the analysis.
WE HELP YOU DELIVER YOUR PROJECTS SUCCESSFULLY.
EMPOWERING YOUR TEAM THROUGH IMPACTFUL PRODUCT TRAINING
Analyze risks and achieve your project goals.
Meeting project objectives—delivering on time, within budget, and with agreed quality—is essential for successful execution.
Experts emphasize that the greatest risk lies in how risks are managed.
Controlling the project and identifying and quantifying risks instills confidence in the management team and all stakeholders.
Because we:
• Manage projects proactively.
• Keep stakeholders informed of risks.
• Prevent costly delays caused by unforeseen issues.
• Prepare for adverse scenarios.
• Proactively mitigate the risks with higher impact on project objectives.
NOT ALL RISK ANALYSIS METHODS ARE EQUALLY EFFECTIVE.
- Quantitative risk analysis stands out as a reliable and more precise method , making it an indispensable tool.
- If you rely on risk matrices, always pair them with probabilistic risk analysis for accurate results.
- Ultimately, avoid simplistic, ambiguous, and superficial methods—they undermine decision-making.
- Risk matrices alone lack reliability. For critical projects, choose a robust and dependable risk analysis method.
Training, consulting, and support in quantitative risk analysis models.
Project Management: Enhance planning accuracy and resource allocation by anticipating variations and multiple possible scenarios.
Financial planning of projects: Optimize financial oversight by evaluating diverse economic scenarios and their probabilities, empowering better decision-making.
Risk Management: Refine mitigation strategies by modeling and forecasting potential risks and their impacts, strengthening organizational resilience.
We deliver tailored training and consulting for organizations across all industries, backed by extensive expertise in the energy and industrial sectors.
Proactively analyze the risks in your projects, plans, and investments.
Risk Analysis for Projects Scheduled with MS Project or Primavera PRA:
- Anticipate delivery dates, durations, and costs with precision.
- Provide realistic and actionable information to your project stakeholders.
Learn the advantages of risk management.
Training and consulting tailored to your team.
Since 2003, Manuel Carmona (MBA-PMI-RMP) has been mastering risk analysis and management, becoming a go-to expert in quantitative methods. Obsessed with strategy and decision-making, he turns dry statistics into engaging, aha-filled moments in every training session.
Manuel’s knack for simplifying the complex has won over top universities
Since 2003, Manuel Carmona (MBA-PMI-RMP) has been mastering risk analysis and management, becoming a go-to expert in quantitative methods. Obsessed with strategy and decision-making, he turns dry statistics into engaging, aha-filled moments in every training session.
Manuel’s knack for simplifying the complex has won over top universities and companies. He can make topics like probability distributions or sensitivity analysis feel as entertaining as your favorite podcast.
We use computer technology as a key tool in risk analysis and decision-making.
Advanced Analysis
Master risk management in your projects using leading software such as MS Excel and Microsoft Project, along with advanced tools for quantitative risk analysis, decision tree design, neural networks, and Monte Carlo simulation.